Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
